Economic Outlook "Disrupted but Not Derailed" Amid Global Volatility

Finance Minister Nicola Willis confirms an unusual "rework" of the 2026 Budget just weeks before delivery, following a Moody’s outlook downgrade and rising oil volatility.

By: AXL Media

Published: Apr 23, 2026, 5:52 AM EDT

Source: RNZ Pacific

The "Very Unusual" Forecast Revisit

Speaking at her Beehive office, Willis explained that the intensity of international market movements has forced a "rework" of the Budget, which is set for announcement on May 28. Treasury is working to ensure the forecasts for growth, inflation, and the state of the books are as accurate as possible before Cabinet signs off.

"Every time these numbers move in international markets, it has pretty significant implications," Willis said. The "rework" is also aimed at accommodating new, unexpected initiatives, including recently announced cost-of-living support measures.

Moody’s Outlook Downgrade

Adding to the fiscal pressure, the credit rating agency Moody’s has downgraded New Zealand’s rating outlook to “negative” from “stable.” While the agency affirmed the nation’s top-tier 'Aaa' rating, it cited increased risks to the country's fiscal trajectory amid the current global uncertainty.

Oil Scenarios: The Iran Conflict Impact