Decade of Armed Conflict in Colombia Linked to Significant Rise in Tuberculosis Cases and Mortality Rates

New ISGlobal study links Colombian armed conflict to higher TB cases, revealing how displacement and violence fuel the spread of infectious disease in rural areas.

By: AXL Media

Published: Mar 30, 2026, 6:36 AM EDT

Source: Information for this report was sourced from Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal)

The Hidden Epidemiological Cost of War

The prolonged internal struggle in Colombia has produced a public health crisis that extends far beyond the immediate casualties of violence. A recent study published in BMJ Global Health reveals that tuberculosis (TB) incidence and mortality are intrinsically tied to the local intensity of armed conflict. By developing a municipal-level index, the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) mapped how kidnappings, forced displacements, and armed attacks created fertile ground for infectious disease. The research suggests that the instability of war does not just destroy infrastructure, but fundamentally alters the biological landscape of the communities it touches.

Mapping a Decade of Territorial Inequality

Between 2008 and 2019, Colombia saw a 16% reduction in tuberculosis case notifications at the national level, yet this progress was not shared equally across its 1,122 municipalities. Regions characterized by high-intensity conflict remained hotspots for the disease, showing significantly higher morbidity and mortality records than peaceful areas. Even as national TB deaths dropped by 9%, the most violent territories continued to report the highest mortality rates. This disparity indicates that national health gains are frequently eroded in zones where the state’s presence is contested by armed groups, leaving local populations vulnerable to preventable deaths.

Social Determinants in the Conflict Zone

The relationship between warfare and tuberculosis is driven by a collapse of living standards that facilitates the spread of the bacteria. According to Salomé Valencia, the lead author of the study, forced migration and displacement lead to overcrowding and poor ventilation in temporary housing, which are primary drivers of TB transmission. These environmental factors often collide with systemic issues such as malnutrition and food insecurity, which weaken the immune systems of those living in conflict zones. When combined with other comorbidities like HIV, the progression from infection to active, lethal disease becomes far more likely for those caught in the crossfire.