Columnist Clyde Russell Warns Global Energy Crisis Is 'Locked In' Despite Potential Ceasefire Overtures

Columnist Clyde Russell warns that a 12 million bpd supply loss has locked in a global energy crisis, regardless of a ceasefire or the reopening of Hormuz.

By: AXL Media

Published: Apr 7, 2026, 4:53 AM EDT

Source: Information for this report was sourced from Reuters

The Delusion of a Conflict Without Losers

As the war between Iran and the U.S.-Israeli coalition enters its sixth week, Asia Commodities and Energy Columnist Clyde Russell asserts that most global parties are operating under a profound delusion. The primary misconception is the belief that any nation can emerge from this conflict as a "winner." Russell argues that even if a ceasefire were reached tomorrow and the Strait of Hormuz reopened, a significant energy crisis for the global economy is already "locked in," necessitated by the sheer scale of the 12 million barrels per day (bpd) supply loss.

Refined Product Scarcity vs. Crude Oil Prices

A critical distinction in the current emergency is the transition from a crisis of crude oil prices to an absolute emergency regarding the supply of refined products. While much of the public focus remains on the price per barrel, fuel-importing nations are facing a physical shortage of jet fuel, diesel, and gasoline. In Singapore, the price of physical jet fuel has already more than doubled. Russell points out that this supply shock is more concerning than the COVID-19 pandemic, as the current surge is driven by a lack of available product rather than a slump in demand.

Critique of U.S. Diplomatic Rationality

The second major delusion identified is the assumption that U.S. President Donald Trump is acting as a rational actor attuned to the economic damage being inflicted on allies. Russell highlights recent social media posts where the President threatened to "take out" Iran and rain "hell" on its infrastructure. The columnist notes a jarring contrast in leadership imagery, citing a White House appearance where the President stood alongside an Easter Bunny character while simultaneously threatening to destroy Iran’s bridges and power plants.