Analysts predict limited military support for Tehran from China and Russia despite escalating regional offensive

Experts analyze why China and Russia are unlikely to offer Iran military support despite the ongoing conflict, citing oil trade and strategic US relations.

By: AXL Media

Published: Mar 7, 2026, 4:10 PM EST

Source: The information in this article was sourced from The Media Line

Rhetorical support versus military action

In the first full week of the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran, both China and Russia have issued strong statements of support for Tehran. Beijing condemned the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, while Moscow’s Foreign Ministry blamed regional instability on Western aggression. However, Dr. Simon Wolfgang Fuchs of Hebrew University characterized these gestures as being akin to "thoughts and prayers," noting that neither nation has signaled an intention to move beyond diplomatic rhetoric toward direct military assistance.

China’s pragmatic diplomatic DNA

Experts from Bar-Ilan University suggest that China has no intention of tethering its interests to what it perceives as a collapsing Iranian regime. Professor Yoram Evron noted that China typically avoids direct military conflicts in the Middle East and has a history of remaining aloof even during previous escalations, such as the 12-Day War in mid-2025. Furthermore, with U.S. President Donald Trump scheduled to visit Beijing on March 31, 2026, China is unlikely to jeopardize a fragile trade truce by engaging in a kinetic confrontation over Iranian interests.

Asymmetric oil dependency

The economic relationship between Beijing and Tehran remains heavily lopsided. While China relies on Iran for roughly 12% of its oil supply, that same volume accounts for approximately 87% of Iran’s total crude oil exports. Analysts argue that while China has helped the regime survive by purchasing oil despite sanctions, it will not sacrifice its broader global interests for a partner it views as acting illogically. Furthermore, Beijing is expected to establish relations with any successor government in Iran, as no future regime can operate without China as a primary customer.