Analysis of Iranian opposition strength as Trump and Netanyahu call for popular uprising

Expert analysis on the potential for an Iranian uprising following U.S.-Israeli strikes and the death of Khamenei. Hurdles include leadership and IRGC power.

By: AXL Media

Published: Mar 3, 2026, 9:40 PM EST

Source: The information in this article was sourced from Atlantic Council

A Decade of Rising Domestic Dissent

The call for an uprising follows a ten year period of intensifying domestic unrest within Iran. Significant protest waves in 2017 and 2019, initially sparked by economic grievances, rapidly evolved into explicit demands for the end of clerical rule. The "Woman, Life, Freedom" movement of 2022 and 2023 further challenged the regime’s legitimacy following the death of Mahsa Amini. While the security forces eventually suppressed these movements through mass arrests and approximately 550 fatalities, the underlying social friction remains a primary driver for those currently cheering the U.S. and Israeli military intervention.

The Leadership Vacuum and Organized Opposition

Despite the depth of public anger, a primary obstacle to a successful revolution is the absence of a clear, organized leadership within the country. The regime has historically been effective at imprisoning or exiling vocal dissidents and neutralizing reformist figures like Mohammad Khatami and Mir-Hossein Mousavi. While Reza Pahlavi, the son of the late Shah, has positioned himself as a transitional figure from exile, his domestic support remains unverified. Notably, President Trump recently expressed doubts regarding Pahlavi's ability to lead, suggesting that a figure from within the current domestic landscape might be more appropriate.

Ethnic Minorities and Regional Autonomy

As the central government’s security apparatus weakens under sustained bombardment, Iran’s diverse ethnic minorities may see an opportunity to press for greater autonomy or independence. Groups such as the Kurds in the northwest, the Baloch in the southeast, and Arab populations in Ahvaz have long standing grievances and histories of armed resistance against Tehran. A localized seizure of power by these groups could lead to a fragmented state, complicating the vision of a unified democratic transition and potentially triggering internal territorial conflicts.