Air Quality Co-Benefits of Climate Policy Could Protect Millions from Hunger Risk

New research shows that reducing ozone pollution through climate mitigation can offset 15% of the hunger risk caused by land-use competition and carbon pricing.

By: AXL Media

Published: Mar 16, 2026, 6:57 AM EDT

Source: Information for this report was sourced from National Institute for Environmental Studies.

The Paradox of Climate Mitigation and Food Security

While climate change is a known threat to global food supplies, the policies designed to stop it can inadvertently worsen hunger. Aggressive climate mitigation often relies on carbon pricing, afforestation, and large-scale bioenergy production. These measures create intense competition for agricultural land, driving up food prices and reducing availability for the world’s most vulnerable populations. However, new research from an international consortium, including the University of Tokyo and the National Institute for Environmental Studies, suggests that air quality "co-benefits" are a critical, often overlooked factor in this equation.

Ozone Reduction: The Hidden Yield Booster

The same policies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions also lower the emissions of ozone precursors. Tropospheric ozone is a potent air pollutant that enters plant leaves and damages their ability to photosynthesize, significantly reducing crop yields. By simulating the 1.5 °C climate target scenario, researchers found that lower ozone concentrations lead to higher agricultural productivity. These yield gains help lower food prices and increase food availability, acting as a partial buffer against the economic shocks of carbon mitigation strategies.

Quantifying the Human Impact

The study utilized a "middle-of-the-road" socioeconomic pathway (SSP2) as a baseline. Without climate intervention, global hunger is expected to decrease as technology and trade improve. However, under a stringent 1.5 °C mitigation scenario, the population at risk of hunger is projected to be 56 million higher than the baseline by 2050. The research highlights that the ozone reduction benefit alone could offset approximately 8.4 million of those cases—roughly 15% of the total increase in hunger risk caused by mitigation policies.